growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence because in the 2000s trading volume increased …

Standard models of informed speculation suggest that traders try to learn information that others do not have. This … informed traders also know. There can be multiple herding equilibria, and herding speculators may even choose to study …

elasticity assumptions. We show speculation had little, if any, effect on prices and volatility …of speculation. Our framework is based on a simple and transparent model of supply and demand in …the cash and storage markets for a commodity. It lets us determine whether speculation is consistent …

evaluate the potential effect of their trading on stock prices. We address two aspects of trading by money managers: herding … of substantial herding or positive-feedback trading by pension fund managers, except in small stocks. Also, there is no …

A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international … exchange rate volatility, even after controlling for a host of features, including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate …

Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …

sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of …

trade, providing a natural hedge against world price fluctuations. We find the consumption terms of trade at local prices is … more volatile than at world prices, but the two are strongly positively correlated. The same commodities dominate the …