consistent with a model of strategic diversification incentives in forecast reporting. Our results caution against the use of …

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

approximating strict inflation-forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties. We also show that economies with more …Proposals for 'inflation targeting' as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of … how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long-run inflation target. An interesting possibility is …

Professional house price forecast data are consistent with a rational model where agents must learn about the …-run mean can generate forecast bias, a response of forecasts to lagged realizations, sluggish response of forecasts to … contemporaneous realizations, and over-reaction to forecast revisions. Introducing behavioral biases, either over-confidence or …