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analysis is on three related hypotheses tested with both "world" aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462855
The sharp, secular decline in the world real interest rate of the past thirty years suggests that the surge in global … made the world economy more vulnerable to financial crises. These findings are the quantitative predictions of a two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537726
In this paper we first trace the changing nature of banking, currency and debt crises from the last century to the present. Each type of crisis has transmogrified in the presence of official intervention and the creation of a safety net. A similar pattern is observed for international rescue...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471060
We analyze the sovereign bond issuance data of eight major emerging markets (EMs) - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey from 1970 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that (i) EM local currency bonds tend to be smaller in size, shorter in maturity, or lower in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481987
crises feature a feedback loop between bank guarantees and bank holdings of local sovereign debt thereby linking financial to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456615
cycles, banking and sovereign debt crises, hyperinflation, and, for the post World War II period, the reliance on IMF …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462835
Two general approaches have been offered for dealing with the developing country debt crisis: continued reliance on case-by-case negotiation, versus global plans for fundamentally restructuring the terms of international lending and repayment. Both approaches have precedents in earlier...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476512
We present a simple model of sovereign debt crises in which a country chooses its optimal mix of short and long-term bonds subject to standard contracting frictions: the country cannot commit to repay its debts nor to a specific path of future debt issues, and contracts cannot be made state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457880
We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576628
Advanced economies borrowed substantially during the Covid recession to fund their fiscal policy. The Covid recession differed from the Great Recession in that sovereign debt markets remained calm and spreads barely responded. We study the experience of Greece, the most extreme manifestation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468244