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cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247924
We re-examine monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies (EME) in the form of capital flow reversals, using sectoral-level securities holdings data for Euro Area investors. In response to a surprise monetary tightening, active investors such as investment funds re-balance their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072927
Global liquidity refers to the volumes of financial flows - largely intermediated through global banks and non-bank financial institutions - that can move at relatively high frequencies across borders. The amplitude of responses to global conditions like risk sentiment, discussed in the context...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322743
Over the last two decades, the unprecedented increase in non-bank financial intermediation, particularly open-end mutual funds and ETFs, accounts for nearly half of the external financing flows to emerging markets exceeding cross-border lending by global banks. Evidence suggests that investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250161
Global risk and risk aversion shocks have distinct distributional impacts on emerging market capital flows and returns. In particular, we find salient consequences of these different global shocks for tail risk in emerging markets. Open-end mutual fund trading provides a key mechanism linking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435139
Governments tend to increase their borrowing at the same time, giving rise to a global fiscal cycle. This global fiscal cycle has a large component that is unexplained by global business cycle variables. We propose a novel explanation for the emergence of the global fiscal cycle: governments'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056167
predictors of the financial and trade shock during the crisis. The severity of the financial shock was further exacerbated by … financial ties to the U.S., while the trade shock was more severe in EMs with a larger commodity export share …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462210
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486174
The sharp, secular decline in the world real interest rate of the past thirty years suggests that the surge in global … made the world economy more vulnerable to financial crises. These findings are the quantitative predictions of a two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537726
Although internal policy mismanagements can be cited in most recent emerging market crises, they seldom account fully for the severity of these crises. The reluctance of international investors to provide the resources that would limit the extent of the reversal almost invariably plays a key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471969