This paper uses a novel teat to see whether the Herse (1985) and Woo (1985) models are consistent with the variability of the deutschemark - dollar exchange rate 1974-1984. The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is yes. Both models, however, explain the month to month variability as resulting in a...

The set of parameters needed to calculate the expected present discounted value of a stream of dividends can be estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When the test is applied to some annual U.S. stock market data,...

This paper compares nominal income and monetary targets in a standard aggregate demand - aggregate supply framework. If the desirability of policies is measured by their effect on the unconditional variance of output, nominal income targeting is preferable if and only if the aggregate elasticity...

This paper establishes an inequality that may be used to test the null hypothesis that a stock price equals the expected present discounted value of its dividend stream, with a constant discount rate. The inequality states that if this hypothesis is true, the variance of the innovation in the...

This paper develops and applies a novel test of the Holt, et al.(1961) linear quadratic inventory model. It is shown that a central property of the model is that a certain weighted sum of variances and covariances of production, sales and inventories must be nonnegative. The weights are the...

The relationship between interest rates and exchange rates is puzzling and poorly understood. But under some standard assumptions, interest rates can be adjusted to smooth real exchange rate movements at the possible price of increased volatility in other variables. In New Zealand, estimates...

An aggregate demand - aggregate supply framework is used to analyze the effects of Japanese monetary policy, 1973:1-1990:8. It is found that money supply shocks contribute relatively little to output variability over the sample as a whole. Nor do these shocks seem to be particularly marked...

A simple real model is used to decompose movements of aggregate inventories and output in Japan during 1975 to 1987 to three components, one due to cost shocks, one due to demand shocks, and one due to' shocks from abroad. Cost shocks are estimated to account for about one tenth of the movement...

This paper compares the cyclical and secular behavior of Japanese and U.S. inventories at the aggregate and sectoral level, 1967-1987. While, as is well known, U.S. inventories are sharply procyclical, Japanese inventories are only mildly procyclical. In neither country do inventory and sales...

A simple real linear-quadratic inventory model is used to determine how cost and demand shocks interacted to cause fluctuations in aggregate GNP and inventories in the U.S., 1947-1986. Cost shocks appear to be the predominant source of fluctuations in inventories, and are largely responsible for...