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Ventura, Jaume - 2002

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that … bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles … productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as substitute for international capital flows, improving the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469402

Leverage and Asset Bubbles : Averting Armageddon with Chapter 11?

Miller, Marcus - 2010

An iconic model with high leverage and overvalued collateral assets is used to illustrate the amplification mechanism driving asset prices to 'overshoot' equilibrium when an asset bubble bursts--threatening widespread insolvency and what Richard Koo calls a 'balance sheet recession'

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462797

Interbank Networks and the Interregional Transmission of Financial Crises : Evidence from the Panic of 1907

Jaremski, Matthew S.; Wheelock, David C. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper provides quantitative evidence on interbank transmission of financial distress in the Panic of 1907 and ensuing recession. Originating in New York City, the panic led to payment suspensions and emergency currency issuance in many cities. Data on the universe of interbank connections...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287370

The International Transmission of Credit Bubbles : Theory and Policy

Ventura, Jaume - 2015

propagated abroad. In previous work, we built on the theory of rational bubbles to develop a framework to think about the origins … environment is conducive to countries experiencing credit bubbles that have large macroeconomic effects at home and are quickly … and domestic effects of these credit bubbles. This paper extends that framework to two-country setting and studies the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457733

(Almost) 200 Years of News-Based Economic Sentiment

Binsbergen, Jules H. van; Bryzgalova, Svetlana; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468226

Market Integration and Contagion

Bekaert, Geert - 2003

Contagion is usually defined as correlation between markets in excess of what would be implied by economic fundamentals; however, there is considerable disagreement regarding the definitions of the fundamentals, how the fundamentals might differ across countries, and the mechanisms that link the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469193

Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?

Rappoport, Peter - 1991

Standard tests find that no bubbles are present in the stock price data for the last one hundred years. In contrast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475403

War Discourse and Disaster Premia : 160 Years of Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets

Hirshleifer, David; Mai, Dat; Kuntara Pukthuanthong - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287305

Bank Branch Density and Bank Runs

Benmelech, Efraim; Yang, Jun; Zator, Michal - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Bank branch density, defined as the number of bank branches to total deposits, has significantly declined over the past decade, fueled by a confluence of branch closings and the almost doubling of deposits between 2016 and 2022. During this period, banks with low branch density benefited from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322849

Debt Crises : For Whom the Bell Tolls

Cole, Harold - 2016

What a country has done in the past, and what other countries are doing in the present, can feedback for good or for ill in debt markets. We develop a simple model of sovereign bond markets with global investors and endogenous information acquisition about fundamental default probabilities. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456346