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evaluating bias in VA is to test for balance in lagged values of the outcome, based on the intuition that today's inputs cannot …, tests for balance using lagged outcomes do not provide robust information about the degree of bias in value-added models for … structure even in large datasets. We conclude that bias in VA models is better evaluated using techniques that are less …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456713
To estimate causal effects from observational data, an applied researcher must impose beliefs. The instrumental variables exclusion restriction, for example, represents the belief that the instrument has no direct effect on the outcome of interest. Yet beliefs about instrument validity do not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456059
In this paper we show that omitted variables and publication bias lead to severely biased estimates of the value of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468292
In this paper, I present a simple characterization of the sample selection bias problem that is also applicable to the … problem of sample selection bias is fit within the conventional specification error framework of Griliches and Theil. A simple … estimator is discussed that enables analysts to utilize ordinary regression methods to estimate models free of selection bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478957
observations in empirical analyses. Errors in such measures may bias parameter estimation, but it remains unclear how large such … multiple imputation, a standard statistical imputation technique so far untested in this setting, effectively reduces bias and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537755
In this paper we derive the standard error of a price index when both prices and tastes or technology are treated as stochastic. Changing tastes or technology are a reason for the weights in the price index to be treated as stochastic, which can interact with the stochastic prices themselves. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468497
Because of limitations in survey-based measures of household consumption, a growing literature uses an alternative measure of consumer expenditures commonly referred to as "imputed consumption." This approach typically utilizes annual snapshots of household income and wealth from administrative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480729
We propose point forecast accuracy measures based directly on distance of the forecast-error c.d.f. from the unit step function at 0 ("stochastic error distance," or SED). We provide a precise characterization of the relationship between SED and standard predictive loss functions, and we show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456163
In this paper I analyze the relationships among investment, q, and cash flow in a tractable stochastic model in which marginal q and average q are identically equal. After analyzing the impact of changes in the distribution of the marginal operating profit of capital, I extend the model to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457120
We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties - particularly as regards serial correlation - differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459708