Similar Search Results

(Almost) 200 Years of News-Based Economic Sentiment

Binsbergen, Jules H. van; Bryzgalova, Svetlana; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468226

Daily Momentum and New Investors in an Emerging Stock Market

Gao, Zhenyu; Jiang, Wenxi; Xiong, Wei A.; Xiong, Wei - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Despite the dominance of retail investors in the Chinese stock market, there's a conspicuous absence of price momentum in weekly and monthly returns. This study uncovers the presence of price momentum in daily returns and, through a systematic analysis of trading heterogeneity among investors,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436970

Corporate Discount Rates

Gormsen, Niels; Huber, Kilian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Standard theory implies that the discount rates used by firms in investment decisions (i.e., their required returns to capital) determine investment and transmit financial shocks to the real economy. However, there exists little evidence on how firms' discount rates change over time and affect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322717

War Discourse and Disaster Premia : 160 Years of Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets

Hirshleifer, David; Mai, Dat; Pukthuanthong, Kuntara - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287305

Machine Forecast Disagreement

Bali, Turan G.; Kelly, Bryan T.; Mörke, Mathis; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We propose a statistical model of differences in beliefs in which heterogeneous investors are represented as different machine learning model specifications. Each investor forms return forecasts from their own specific model using data inputs that are available to all investors. We measure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337816

Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates : The Fed Non-Yield Shock

Boehm, Christoph E.; Kroner, T. Niklas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Existing high-frequency monetary policy shocks explain surprisingly little variation in stock prices and exchange rates around FOMC announcements. Further, both of these asset classes display heightened volatility relative to non-announcement times. We use a heteroskedasticity-based procedure to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576665

War Discourse and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns

Hirshleifer, David; Mai, Dat; Pukthuanthong, Kuntara - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected asset returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322736

News Diffusion in Social Networks and Stock Market Reactions

Hirshleifer, David; Peng, Lin; Wang, Qiguang - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study how the social transmission of public news influences investors' beliefs and securities markets. Using an extensive dataset to measure investor social networks, we find that earnings announcements from firms in higher-centrality locations generate stronger immediate price and trading...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537754

The Return to Capital in China

Bai, Chong-En - 2006

China's investment rate is one of the highest in the world, which naturally leads one to suspect that the return to … capital in China must be quite low. Using the data from China's national accounts, we estimate the rate of return to capital … in China. We find that the aggregate rate of return to capital averaged 25% during 1978-1993, fell during 1993-1998, and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465906

The External Impact of China's Exchange Rate Policy : Evidence from Firm Level Data

Eichengreen, Barry - 2011

China's exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and data on 6,050 firms in 44 countries. Renminbi appreciation has a positive … effect on firms exporting to China but little positive or even a negative impact on those providing inputs for China …'s processing exports. Stock prices rise for firms competing with China in their home market while falling for firms importing …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461061

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last