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into different components. We find that the firm-specific component contributes substantially to aggregate sales volatility … heterogeneous firms selling to multiple markets to motivate a theoretically-founded decomposition of firms' annual sales growth rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458603
We use more than one century of Argentine and Mexican data to estimate the structural parameters of a small-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job at explaining business cycles in emerging countries. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466032
This paper shows how changes in the volatility of the real interest rate at which small open emerging economies borrow … motivate our investigation, we document the strong evidence of time-varying volatility in the real interest rates faced by a … sample of four emerging small open economies: Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Brazil. We postulate a stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463773
Firms in emerging markets are exposed to severe financial frictions and credit constraints, that are exacerbated by the sudden stop of capital inflows. Can monetary policy offset this external credit squeeze? We show that although this may be the case during moderate contractions (or in partial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468176
year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during … the shock compared to countries which did not have such pre-emptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper … fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794642
Recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies has focused in two leading approaches: introducing a stochastic productivity trend, in addition to temporary productivity shocks; or allowing for foreign interest rate shocks coupled with financial frictions. This paper compares...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462714
The current account reversals, large recessions, and price collapses that define Sudden Stops contradict the predictions of a large class of models in which the current account is a vehicle for consumption smoothing and investment financing. This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466098
We provide a rationale for the observed pro-cyclicality of tax policies in emerging markets and present a novel mechanism through which tax policy amplifies the business cycle. Our explanation relies on two features of emerging markets: limited access to financial markets and limited commitment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467189
the total trade balance. Furthermore, they generate excess volatility of consumption over output and a large volatility of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453995
the associations of growth level, growth volatility, shocks, institutions, and macroeconomic fundamentals have changed in … growth, global oil prices, and global financial volatility. After accounting for the effects global shocks, we find that … attainment, and lack of political polarization reduce the volatility of economic growth. Countries cope with shocks better in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455214