Showing 1 - 10 of 2,608
Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468226
After the Covid-shock in March 2020, stock prices declined abruptly, reflecting both the deterioration of investors' expectations of economic activity as well as the surge in aggregate risk aversion. In the following months however, whereas economic activity remained sluggish, equity markets...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334522
Is shareholder interest in corporate social responsibility driven by pecuniary motives (abnormal rates of return) or non-pecuniary ones (willingness to sacrifice returns to address various firm externalities)? To answer this question, we categorize the literature into seven tests: (1) costs of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477263
We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372444
We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models. We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance--in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and test asset pricing errors--is improving in model parameterization (or "complexity"). Our empirical findings verify the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372446
We investigate the event-based geopolitical shocks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine on selected agricultural and energy commodities using daily event-based structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We find that the geopolitical shock affects the markets of wheat (3%) and European natural gas...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447271
The accuracy of particle filters for nonlinear state-space models crucially depends on the proposal distribution that mutates time t-1 particle values into time t values. In the widely-used bootstrap particle filter, this distribution is generated by the state-transition equation. While...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455233
Money is debt that circulates with no questions asked. Stablecoins are a new form of private money that circulate with many questions asked. We show how stablecoins can maintain a constant price even though they face run risk and pay no interest. Stablecoin holders are indirectly compensated for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477289
Cryptomining, the clearing of cryptocurrency transactions, uses large quantities of electricity. We document that cryptominers' use of local electricity implies higher electricity prices for existing small businesses and households. Studying the electricity market in Upstate NY and using the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322700
Trading in cryptocurrencies has grown rapidly over the last decade, primarily dominated by retail investors. Using a dataset of 200,000 retail traders from eToro, we show that they have a different model of the underlying price dynamics in cryptocurrencies relative to other assets. Retail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322705