Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004 we analyze the empirical characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows --understood as large and largely unexpected capital account contractions that occur in periods of systemic turmoil -- and the...

This paper uses computational techniques to assess whether or not various propositions that have been advanced as plausible in the literature on Customs Unions (or other regional trade agreements) may actually hold. The idea is to make probabilistic statements as to whether propositions of...

Until NAFTA, analyses of preferential trading arrangements began by assuming a customs union with a common external tariff, and the differences between customs unions and free trade agreements (FTAs) have been little analyzed. This paper points to some of the differences between FTAs and customs...

We study the implications of customs union formation for multilateral tariff cooperation. We model cooperation in multilateral trade policy as self-enforcing, in that it involves balancing the current gains from deviating unilaterally from an agreed-upon trade policy against the future losses...

This paper compares two possible formats for free trade in the Americas: a system of spokes surrounding a U.S. hub, and a free trade area. The paper identifies the sources of welfare change, and it argues that a country's attitude towards a system depends on whether the arrangement is a...

This paper proposes that Viner's celebrated trade diversion and trade creation terminology for the customs union problem be abandoned. As the alternative is offered a welfare calculus based upon the terms-of-trade and volume-of-trade taxonomy from the theory of tariffs. The paper discusses, by...

I measure the economic impact of a trade balance constraint that was in effect during that period and I compute predicted economic outcomes for the full adoption of a customs union, as has been agreed as part of the Mercosur negotiations, separating the sometimes opposing impacts of the removal...

In his papers during the lead up to the birth of the European Monetary Union, Obstfeld considered whether the countries forming the EMU were sufficiently similar to survive a single monetary policy--and more importantly, whether they had the capacity to adjust to asymmetric shocks given a single...

International economic integration yields large potential welfare effects, even in a static constant returns competitive world economy. Our method is novel. The effect of border barriers on trade flows is often inferred from gravity models. But their rather atheoretic structure precludes welfare...

This paper characterizes the integration patterns of international currency unions (such as the CFA Franc zone and the East Caribbean Currency Area). We empirically explore different features of currency unions, and compare them both to countries with sovereign monies, and to regions within...