In this paper, we empirically assess the causal links between trade and individual income risk and study the role that … 2012. Our estimates suggest substantial heterogeneity in labor income risk across workers in different entry cohorts and …-industry changes in imports and exports are causally related to income risk: Imports increase risk and exports decrease risk, and they …

of the world, individuals acquire skill; however outside investors and individuals inefficiently share risk. We show that … economy enters an endogenous disaster state. We show that the possibility of these disaster states distorts risk prices, even …

risk of fatal hazards is fraught with problems. The theoretical basis for such estimates are flawed in a number of …

We develop a macroeconomic model with physical and human capital, human capital risk, and limited contract enforcement …. We show analytically that young (high-return) households are the most exposed to human capital risk and are also the … least insured. We document this risk-insurance pattern in data on life-insurance drawn from the Survey of Consumer Finance …

We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local … newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty … uncertainty much more than the average election. The COVID-19 pandemic drove huge increases in policy uncertainty and unemployment …

model is often inappropriate, since model uncertainty is an important element of policy evaluation. We advocate the use of … model averaging to account for model uncertainty and show how it may be applied to policy evaluation exercises. We …

A significant source of risk arises from uncertainty concerning future government policy. Government action - - tax … preexisting rules. The effects of government relief - - compensation, grandfathering, phase-ins - - on ex ante incentives and risk …

Building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), I construct a monthly index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU … a trio of terms pertaining to the economy, uncertainty and policy-related matters. The GEPU Index rises sharply in …

We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of …-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure … find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy …