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perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are … prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation … effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468813
The paper discusses policy relevant models, going from (1) chronic inflation in the 20th century after WWII, to (2 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456144
stable inflation behavior will be generated -- is incorrect. This is because New Keynesian (NK) models are typically … consistent with the existence of RE paths with explosive inflation rates (in addition to one or more stable paths) that normally … imply the absence of explosive inflation. That result does not, however, justify negative conclusions about NK analysis. For …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464114
extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455377
We show that personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers … their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC … voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455453
This paper has three parts. Part 1 constructs a classical economic model of inflation, augmented by a complete set of … core monetary model explains the history of inflation after WWII and Part 3 provides evidence to show that the … unconventional monetary policy, followed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, was effective in stabilizing inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460653
What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s … policy strategies. We show that policies constructed using modern optimal control techniques aimed at stabilizing inflation … stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461579
affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both … households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously … provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322872
In a very broad class of dynamic linear models, if agents possess knowledge of current endogenous variables in a least-squares learning process, determinacy of a rational expectations (RE) equilibrium is sufficient but not necessary for learnability of that equilibrium. Thus, since learnability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464483
survey-based experiment obtained during a period of government manipulation of inflation statistics in Argentina (2006 …-2015). This period is interesting because of the attention to inflation information and the availability of both official and … extract all its useful content. We also find evidence of an asymmetric reaction to inflation signals, with expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456571