perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are … prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation … effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring …

The paper discusses policy relevant models, going from (1) chronic inflation in the 20th century after WWII, to (2 …

This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional … unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …

This paper has three parts. Part 1 constructs a classical economic model of inflation, augmented by a complete set of … core monetary model explains the history of inflation after WWII and Part 3 provides evidence to show that the … unconventional monetary policy, followed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, was effective in stabilizing inflation …

What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s … policy strategies. We show that policies constructed using modern optimal control techniques aimed at stabilizing inflation … stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored …