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Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?

McCallum, Bennett T. - 2001

Much recent monetary policy analysis has featured stochastic simulations with small structural macroeconomic models that include: a spending vs. saving ( IS') sector; a price-adjustment sector; and an interest rate policy rule. The first two are frequently specified so as to reflect optimizing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470498

Henriksen, Espen - 2009

Cyclical fluctuations in nominal variables--aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates--are documented to be substantially more synchronized across countries than cyclical fluctuations in real output. A transparent mechanism that can account for this striking feature of the nominal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463527

Trade, Exchange Rate Regimes and Output Co-Movement : Evidence from the Great Depression

Mathy, Gabriel P. - 2011

A large body of cross-country empirical evidence identifies monetary policy and trade integration as key determinants of business cycle co-movement. Partially consistent with this, many argue that the re-emergence of the gold standard allowed for the global transmission of a deflationary shock...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461732

Wage Gaps vs. Output Gaps : Is There a Common Story for All of Europe?

Gordon, Robert J. - 1987

This paper studies the relationship between real wages and unernployment in Europe. It finds no evidence that high real wages are responsible for the differing behavior of unemployment in Europe as contrasted with the U. S., and across European countries finds patterns of real wage behavior that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476613

Procyclical Productivity : Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?

Basu, Susanto - 1995

It has long been argued that cyclical fluctuations in labor and capital utilization and the presence of overhead labor and capital are important for explaining procyclical productivity. Here I present two simple and direct tests of these hypotheses, and a way of measuring the relative importance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473533

Business Cycle Volatility and Openness : An Exploratory Cross-Section Analysis

Razin, Assaf - 1992

This paper links business cycle volatility to barriers on international mobility of goods and capital. Theory predicts that capital market integration should lower consumption volatility while raising investment volatility, if most shocks are country-specific and transitory. The removal of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474757

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation

Fernández, Andrés - 2016

intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847

Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice : with Focus on Personalized Medicine

Manski, Charles F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization using estimates of illness probabilities in clinical choice...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036

News Shocks in Open Economies : Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

Arezki, Rabah - 2015

This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output-the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457809

Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes

Cecchetti, Stephen G. - 1999

Aggregate shocks that move output and inflation in opposite directions create a tradeoff between output and inflation variability, forcing central bankers to make a choice. Differences in the degree of accommodation of shocks lead to disparate variability outcomes, revealing national central...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471355

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