The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain … from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we … perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of parameters in the model's most important equations are drawn randomly from …

bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the U.S. than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety …We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar … generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output. Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium and the U …

We provide the planner's solution to a model where households learn from exogenous natural disaster arrivals about …

explanatory power of the empirical model is higher for domestic lending than for international lending. Second, how liquidity risk … Network, established in 2012, brings together researchers from around the world with access to micro-level data on individual … studies conducted in eleven countries to explore liquidity risk transmission. Among the main results is, first, that …

apps, we use a large language model (LLM) to link each app to each of the app developer's AI patents. (This linkage of …

paper studies a very stylized model of a supply chain, where we study how the decision of a multinational corporation … changes in the presence of uncertainty. The two standard theories of supply chain are Just-in-time and Just-in-case. Just … idiosyncratic risk. We find that a robust supply chain is very different specially in the presence of systemic shocks. In this case …

role of secondary markets in providing opportunities for redistributing risk is made transparent and the modifications …

risk sharing. Higher uncertainty increases stock prices, risk premiums, volatility, wealth inequality and the dispersion of …I characterize a dynamic economy under general distributions of households' risk tolerance, endowments, and beliefs … consumption-share increases; (b) the wealth-share of high risk-tolerant households increases; (c) richer households' wealth …

risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …This paper introduces a formal definition and an experimental measurement of the concept of cognitive uncertainty …: people's subjective uncertainty about what the optimal action is. This concept allows us to bring together and partially …

shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business …To construct a business cycle model consistent with the observed behavior of asset prices, and study the effect of … cycle model. The paper establishes two simple theoretical results: first, when the probability of disaster is constant, the …