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The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms : Measurement, Determinants, and Implications
Weber, Michael; D'Acunto, Francesco; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210074
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Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation
Comin, Diego; Johnson, Robert C.; Jones, Callum - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We develop a multisector, open economy, New Keynesian framework to evaluate how potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves up, similar to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250196
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Monetary Policy and Innovation
Ma, Yueran; Zimmermann, Kaspar - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We document that monetary policy has a substantial impact on innovation activities. After a tightening shock of 100 basis points, research and development (R&D) spending declines by about 1 to 3 percent and venture capital (VC) investment declines by about 25 percent in the following 1 to 3...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372455
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Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility
Diebold, Francis X. - 2016
Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background, we explore whether incorporating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456064
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Aggregate Supply and Potential Output
Razin, Assaf - 2004
estimation of the Phillips curve are pointed out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468400
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Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information
Baumeister, Christiane - 2014
residuals is positive, then even if one has available an infinite sample of data, any inference about the demand elasticity is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457925
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Estimation of DSGE Models When the Data are Persistent
Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2009
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are often solved and estimated under specific assumptions as to whether the exogenous variables are difference or trend stationary. However, even mild departures of the data generating process from these assumptions can severely bias the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463462
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Online Estimation of DSGE Models
Cai, Michael D. - 2020
generalized data tempering for "online" estimation (that is, re-estimating a model as new data become available), and provide … examples of multimodal posteriors that are well captured by SMC methods. We then use the online estimation of the DSGE model to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479349
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Wage Gaps vs. Output Gaps : Is There a Common Story for All of Europe?
Gordon, Robert J. - 1987
wages are responsible for the differing behavior of unemployment in Europe as contrasted with the U. S., and across European … unemployment. Among the specific results are: (1) After adjustment for the income of the self-employed, there is no evidence of … percentage points over the IT. S. values. (2) There was indeed a real wage explosion between 1966 and 1975 in three small high-unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476613
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Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models
Faust, Jon - 2012
While dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for monetary policy analysis have come a long way, there is considerable difference of opinion over the role these models should play in the policy process. The paper develops three main points about assessing the value of these models....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460752