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control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
misspecification so small that it is difficult to detect statistically and cannot be ruled out based on economic theory. This is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544773
A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome. The intervention can affect the outcome and controls on impact and over time. Moreover, there can be subsequent feedback between outcomes, controls and the intervention. Many of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056147
adjustment model which takes explicit account of the measurement error. For examples on the unemployment rate, we find that X11 … does almost as well as the optimal filter on some series but its efficiency is less than 10% for the teenage unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477969
The following paper discusses the analysis of some types of economic time series using an altered time scale, or operational time. It is argued that for some series, observations that are ordinarily thought of as equidistant in time are actually irregularly spaced in a more natural time scale....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479094
In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468283
The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544801
consistent with increasing inequality in every country, growth in residual wage inequality, rising unemployment, and reallocation … within and between industries. While the opening of trade yields welfare gains, unemployment and inequality within sectors … nonmonotonic effects on unemployment and inequality within sectors. As aggregate unemployment and inequality have within- and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464169
This paper develops a simple framework for examining human capital accumulation, unemployment, and relative wages in a … statics are examined, including changes in educational capital and population, entry of new countries to the trading world …, technical change, and a productivity slowdown. We derive the consequences for the skilled-to-unskilled wage gap, unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472680
impact of technical change on relative wages and unemployment in a world in which one country has flexible and the other … the unskilled. By contrast, in Europe it is undoubtedly the rise and persistence of unemployment. Technology has been … European unemployment. This paper seeks to provide a unified account of these major factor market developments. It models the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473209