We use textual analysis of earnings conference calls held by listed firms around the world to measure the amount of risk managers and investors at each firm associate with each country at each point in time. Flexibly aggregating this firm-country-quarter-level data allows us to systematically...

In this paper, we show that inequality is an important determinant of import demand, in that it augments the standard gravity model in a significant way. We interpret this result with the aid of a model in which tastes are nonhomothetic. Classification of products, based on the correlation...

We measure the importance of increasing returns to scale and trade in medical services. Using Medicare claims data, we document that "imported" medical care -- services produced by a medical provider in a different region -- constitute about one-fifth of US healthcare consumption. Larger regions...

Nearly half of all transactions in the $5 trillion market for manufactured goods in the United States were intermediated by wholesalers in 2012, up from 32 percent in 1992. Seventy percent of this increase is due to the growth of "superstar" firms - the largest one percent of wholesalers....

Non-parametric gravity as defined in this paper encompasses previous parametric forms. The model generates non-parametric sufficient statistics for arbitrage gains from trade and terms of trade, and a non-parametric elasticity of terms of trade with respect to supply. For world manufacturing...

We propose a simple and flexible reduced-form econometric approach to estimate gravity models in the short and the long run. The theoretical lens for interpreting our methods amends the canonical Lucas-Prescott adjustment formulation to allow for time-interval-varying...

The dominant paradigm of world trade patterns posits two principal features. Trade between North and South arises due to traditional comparative advantage, largely determined by differences in endowment patterns. Trade within the North, much of it intra-industry trade, is based on economies of...

Although economists have long been interested in the implications of Marshallian externalities (i.e., industry-level external economies of scale) for trading economies, the large number of equilibria that they typically imply has kept such externalities out of the recent quantitative trade...

We develop a structural gravity model that introduces scale effects in bilateral trade. Scale effects and incomplete passthrough give two channels through which exchange rates have real effects on trade patterns. Estimates from Canadian provincial trade data identify these effects through their...

The gravity model has been widely used to infer substantial trade flow effects of institutions such as customs unions and exchange rate mechanisms. McCallum [1995] found that the US-Canada border led to trade between provinces that is a factor 22 (2,200%) times trade between states and...