A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome …

. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while … controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock. We explicitly allow for the possibility of … announcement effects, i.e., that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future, but not at present …

We analyze whether government spending multipliers differ by the sign of the shock. Using aggregate historical U …, the resulting multipliers do not differ by sign of the shock. Thus, we find no evidence of asymmetry of government …

fiscal shocks. We test the theory using data from World War II, which is by far the largest fiscal shock in the history of … data. Our main finding is that the theory quantitatively accounts for macroeconomic activity during this big fiscal shock …

demand. Fiscal policy, especially energy price subsidies, can isolate individual energy importers from the shock, but it has …

This paper investigates the response of real wages and hours worked to an exogenous shock in fiscal policy. We identify … this shock with the dynamic response of government purchases and tax rates to an exogenous increase in military purchases …