The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also … index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and (2 …) quantitative changes in real GNP and the composite index of coincident indicators. Specific smoothing rules are identified which …

, and uses the data on individual commodities to generate the optimum weights in a commodity price index for forecasting G-7 … changes in commodity prices to lead those in consumer prices, at least when the data are denominated in a broad index of major … aggregate (multi-country) consumer price index, the results may not be sufficiently stable to improve post-sample forecasts …

We construct the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) for an unbalanced panel of 143 individual countries on a quarterly basis …. Globally, the Index spikes around major events like the Gulf War, the Euro debt crisis, the Brexit vote and the COVID pandemic …

respectively to the Fraser Institute and World Economic Forum reports, the GLS and the labor market components of the economic … countries around the world, covering issues such as freedom of association, the regulation of work contracts, employee benefits …) and competitiveness (World Economic Forum) …

The standard source for pre-WWII global freight rate trends is the Isserlis British tramp shipping index. We think it … the precipitous decline in nominal freight rates before the World War I, but it also extends the series to the 1940s …. Furthermore, our new series is linked to the post-World War II era (documented by David Hummels), so that we can be more precise …

Building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), I construct a monthly index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU …) from January 1997. The GEPU Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 16 countries that account for two …-thirds of global output. Each national EPU index reflects the relative frequency of own-country newspaper articles that contain …

have real rates fallen? This note computes a measure of the "world" real interest rate and, where possible, a measure of … the implied future real rate. It also makes public our estimates of the "world" real interest rate so they can be used by …