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Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models

Koşar, Gizem; O'Dea, Cormac - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

A growing literature uses now widely-available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210122

Why Survey-Based Subjective Expectations are Meaningful and Important

D'Acunto, Francesco; Weber, Michael - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

For decades, households' subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of professionals and ex-post realizations. In sharp contrast, the literature we review shows household characteristics and the ways in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512053

On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations

Boctor, Valerie R.; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Using data from a large survey of American households, we compare density forecasts elicited with bins- and scenarios-based questions. We show that inflation density forecasts are sensitive to the survey question designs used to elicit them. The within-person discrepancy is smaller, but still...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544685

The Macroeconomics of Narratives

Flynn, Joel P.; Sastry, Karthik - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study the macroeconomic implications of narratives, defined as beliefs about the economy that spread contagiously. In an otherwise standard business-cycle model, narratives generate persistent and belief-driven fluctuations. Sufficiently contagious narratives can "go viral," generating...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576631

Deferred Acceptance with News Utility

Dreyfuss, Bnaya; Glicksohn, Ofer; Heffetz, Ori; Romm, Assaf - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Can incorporating expectations-based-reference-dependence (EBRD) considerations reduce seemingly dominated choices in the Deferred Acceptance (DA) mechanism? We run two experiments (total N = 500) where participants are randomly assigned into one of four DA variants--{static, dynamic} * {student...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462684

Subjective Income Expectations and Household Debt Cycles

D'Acunto, Francesco; Weber, Michael; Yin, Xiao - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Matched transaction-level, credit-registry, and survey-based data reveal that consumers on average form excessively high (low) income expectations relative to ex-post realizations after unexpected positive (negative) income shocks. These extrapolative income expectations lead consumers to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635678

Higher-Order Beliefs and Risky Asset Holdings

Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Yin, Xiao - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We combine a customized survey and randomized controlled trial (RCT) to study the effect of higher-order beliefs on U.S. retail investors' portfolio allocations. We find that investors' higher-order beliefs about stock market returns are correlated with but distinct from their first-order...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635643

Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest

Ba, Bocar A.; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Rivera, Roman; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the "defund the police" movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635693

Going to War and Going to College : Did World War II and the G.I. Bill Increase Educational Attainment for Returning Veterans?

Bound, John - 1999

The end of World War II brought a flood of returning veterans to America's colleges and universities. Yet, despite … evidence about the question of whether military service, combined with the availability of post-war educational benefits, led … structure of the draft during the World War II period and the changing manpower requirements in the armed forces to address the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471331

A Minimalist Model for the Ruble During the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Lorenzoni, Guido; Werning, Iván - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This note isolates an overlooked economic force for the Ruble to appreciate in response to international sanctions limiting exports to Russia. The economic intuition is that when Russians are unable to buy the mix of foreign goods they wish, then foreign goods becomes less attractive, increasing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191024

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