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Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists
Backus, David - 2004
We provide a user's guide to exotic' preferences: nonlinear time aggregators, departures from expected utility, preferences over time with known and unknown probabilities, risk-sensitive and robust control, hyperbolic' discounting, and preferences over sets ( temptations'). We apply each to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468096
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Dynamic Preference "Reversals" and Time Inconsistency
Strack, Philipp; Taubinsky, Dmitry - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We study identification of time inconsistency when an agent at time 0 makes an advance commitment, and later at time 1 can revise their choice after possibly receiving additional information. Roughly speaking, we prove that the only data that reject time-consistent expected utility maximization...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585445
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Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice : with Focus on Personalized Medicine
Manski, Charles F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization using estimates of illness probabilities in clinical choice...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036
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Social Identity and Preferences
Benjamin, Daniel J. - 2007
Social identities prescribe behaviors for people. We identify the marginal behavioral effect of these norms on discount rates and risk aversion by measuring how laboratory subjects' choices change when an aspect of social identity is made salient. When we make ethnic identity salient to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465341
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Early Decisions : A Regulatory Framework
Beshears, John - 2006
We describe a regulatory framework that helps consumers who have difficulty sticking to their own long-run plans. Early Decision regulations help long-run preferences prevail by allowing consumers to partially commit to their long-run goals, making it harder for a momentary impulse to reverse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466751
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Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects : A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia
Abeysinghe, Tilak - 2001
. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output … multiplier effects are large and significant and can transmit shocks in very different patterns than predicted from a bilateral …-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470116
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Bounded Rationality and Strategic Complementarity in a Macroeconomic Model : Policy Effects, Persistence and Multipliers
Bomfim, Antulio N. - 1996
policy effectiveness, output persistence and multiplier effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473377
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Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States
Auerbach, Alan J. - 2019
We estimate local fiscal multipliers and spillovers for the United States using a rich dataset based on U.S. Department of Defense contracts and a variety of outcome variables relating to income and employment. We find strong positive spillovers across locations and industries. Both backward...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479413
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Ten Years after the Financial Crisis : What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?
Ramey, Valerie A. - 2019
This paper takes stock of what we have learned from the "Renaissance" in fiscal research in the ten years since the financial crisis. I first summarize the new innovations in methodology and discuss the various strengths and weaknesses of the main approaches. Reviewing the estimates, I come to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479486
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The Fiscal Multiplier
Hagedorn, Marcus - 2019
We measure the size of the fiscal multiplier using a heterogeneous-agent model with incomplete markets, capital and …We find that market incompleteness is key to determining the size of the fiscal multiplier, which is uniquely … determined in our model for any combination of fiscal and monetary policies of interest. The multiplier is 1.34 if deficit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479524