inflation, strong real wage growth, and low rate of unemployment in the U.S. economy during the late 1990s. Many of these … univariate trends in the unemployment rate and in the rate of productivity growth, these coefficients are stable. This suggests … explanations of movements of wages, prices and unemployment over the 1990s, and indeed over the past forty years, must focus on …

Phillips-curve framework of low---often extremely low---response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly … most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the flat …We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the …

U.S. macroeconomic evidence shows a negative relation between the rate of change of wages and unemployment. In contrast …, most theories of wage determination imply a negative relation between the level of wages and unemployment. In this paper … -- from real interest rates to oil prices to payroll taxes -- on the natural rate of unemployment …

series for unemployment and inflation, including additional supply shift variables in the Phillips curve, using monthly or …This paper investigates the precision of conventional and unconventional estimates of the natural rate of unemployment … quarterly data, and using various measures for expected inflation. This imprecision suggests caution in using the NAIRU to guide …

-looking Phillips curve linking inflation to current and expected deviations of unemployment from its unobserved natural rate. We …This paper bridges the gap between two popular approaches to estimating the natural rate of unemployment, u*. The first … approach uses detailed labor market indicators such as labor market flows, cross-sectional data on unemployment and vacancies …

for the unemployment-inflation tradeoff and for the conduct of monetary policy.<br><br>We proceed in two steps. We first … setting by firms. We derive the relation between inflation and unemployment and discuss how it is influenced by the presence … of labor market frictions and real wage rigidities. We show the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment …

unemployment rates, an increase in demand reduces unemployment without creating strong inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, supply … shocks have a muted effect. At sufficiently low unemployment, there is a labor shortage, so that the economy is at full …

policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate … of policymakers' beliefs, stabilization policy and the postwar behavior of inflation and unemployment in the United …This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation …

despite substantial volatility of the unemployment rate, and in particular the common tendency of PC inflation equations to … the predicted negative relation between inflation and unemployment turned out to be utterly wrong. Instead inflation …'s simulation success is furthered here by recognizing the greater impact on inflation of short-run unemployment (spells of 26 weeks …

opposite direction, but do not feed back to the inflation rate. Additional findings are that the U.S. natural unemployment is …The Phillips curve was init-ally formulated as a relationship between the rate of change and unemployment, yet what … matters for stabilization policy is the rate of inflation, not the rate of wage change. This paper provides new estimates of …