A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …

This paper analyzes a reputational equilibrium for inflation under the generic assumption that monetary policy reflects … proximate preferences for low expected inflation and positive unexpected inflation. The paper stresses the qualitative … implication that in a reputational equilibrium the policymaker behaves as if it is concerned about controlling inflation, even …

policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared to the estimated responses …'s short-run monetary policy. The expected inflation hypothesis implies that weekly money surprises should have persistent …

This paper investigates the hypothesis that surprise changes in the money supply and anticipated inflation (the Mundell … surprises and expected real interest or an inverse relationship between anticipated inflation and expected real interest. These …

representation found by Nelson and Plosser (1980) to be consistent with U. S. historical data. The impact of inflation uncertainty on … hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary. Inflation uncertainty is found to act as …

stable inflation behavior will be generated -- is incorrect. This is because New Keynesian (NK) models are typically … consistent with the existence of RE paths with explosive inflation rates (in addition to one or more stable paths) that normally … imply the absence of explosive inflation. That result does not, however, justify negative conclusions about NK analysis. For …

Why is it that inflation is persistently high in some periods and persistently low in other periods? We argue that lack … inflation lead the public to take defensive actions which then make it optimal for the monetary authority to validate those …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

appointment of Volcker marked a change in the conduct of monetary policy, but inflation dropped only when fiscal policy … accommodated this change two years later. In fact, a disinflationary attempt of the monetary authority leads to more inflation if … been confident about the switch, the Great Inflation would not have occurred and debt would have been higher. This is …

heterogeneous inflation expectations. Expectations are updated through social dynamics and, with heterogeneity, not all firms choose … to operate, putting downward pressure on realized inflation. Our model rationalizes why countries stuck at the zero lower … bound have had a hard time increasing inflation without being aggressive. The same model also predicts that announcing an …