, expected inflation, and expected output growth. Our identifying assumption is that unexpected changes in interest rates in a 30 …, while the response of expected inflation is small. At the same time, forecasts about output growth also increase …

This paper has three parts. Part 1 constructs a classical economic model of inflation, augmented by a complete set of … core monetary model explains the history of inflation after WWII and Part 3 provides evidence to show that the … unconventional monetary policy, followed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, was effective in stabilizing inflation …

micro data from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to test whether increased inflation expectations are indeed associated with …There have recently been suggestions for monetary policy to engineer higher inflation expectations so as to stimulate … current spending. But what is the empirical relationship between inflation expectations and spending? We use the underlying …

affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both … households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously … provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has …

transition to a low-inflation environment. Using the Bank of Israel survey of firms, we document the basic properties of firms …This study analyzes how firms form their inflation expectations during a regime change in monetary policy and a …' inflation expectations and examine how Israeli firms update their inflation expectations after receiving new information about …

A large body of recent empirical work on inflation dynamics documents that current real variables (like unemployment or … output gaps) have little explanatory power for future inflation. Motivated by these findings, I explore the properties of a … wide class of models in which inflation expectations respond little, if at all, to real economic conditions. In this …

In his 2004 inflation targeting manifesto, Marvin Goodfriend described US monetary policy as implicit inflation … targeting and advocated explicit targeting. Summarizing the 1965-2000 US inflation experience, he highlighted the importance of …, no conflict arises between flexible inflation targeting and maintaining/accumulating credibility. Second, implicit …

This paper discusses the recent wave of research that has emphasized the importance of measures of consumers' inflation … expectations. In contrast to other measures of expected inflation, such as for experts or financial market participants, consumers …' inflation expectations capture the broader distribution of societal beliefs about inflation. This research has revealed very …

This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time …

inflation uncertainty strongly predicts a more hawkish policy stance that is not explained either by the Fed's macroeconomic … forecasts or by public uncertainty proxies. We rationalize these results with a model of inflation tail risks and argue that the … effect of uncertainty on the FOMC's decisions reflects policymakers' concern with maintaining credibility for the inflation …