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Baley, Isaac; Veldkamp, Laura - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

We survey work using Bayesian learning in macroeconomics, highlighting common themes and new directions. First, we present many of the common types of learning problems agents face---signal extraction problems---and trace out their effects on macro aggregates, in different strategic settings....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660016

Bayesian Learning in Social Networks

Acemoglu, Daron - 2008

We study the perfect Bayesian equilibrium of a model of learning over a general social network. Each individual receives a signal about the underlying state of the world, observes the past actions of a stochastically-generated neighborhood of individuals, and chooses one of two possible actions....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464607

Fast and Slow Learning From Reviews

Acemoglu, Daron - 2017

This paper develops a model of Bayesian learning from online reviews, and investigates the conditions for asymptotic learning of the quality of a product and the speed of learning under different rating systems. A rating system provides information about reviews left by previous customers. A...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453667

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models : A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach

Svensson, Lars E.O. - 2008

We study the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We use a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach to study policy design, approximating the uncertainty by different discrete modes in a Markov chain, and by taking...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464755

Beliefs, Doubts and Learning : Valuing Economic Risk

Hansen, Lars Peter - 2007

decision theory to characterize when learning or discriminating among competing probability models is challenging. I also use … choice theory under uncertainty to explore the ramifications of model uncertainty and learning in environments in which … underpinnings of asset pricing models. I illustrate how statistical ambiguity can alter the risk-return tradeoff familiar from asset …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465708

Naive Learning with Uninformed Agents

Banerjee, Abhijit - 2019

The DeGroot model has emerged as a credible alternative to the standard Bayesian model for studying learning on networks, offering a natural way to model naive learning in a complex setting. One unattractive aspect of this model is the assumption that the process starts with every node in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479453

The Informativeness of Prices : Search With Learning and Cost Uncertainty

Benabou, Roland - 1991

Aggregate cost uncertainty, arising from real shocks or unanticipated inflation, reduces the informativeness of prices by scrambling relative and aggregate variations. But when agents can acquire additional information, such increased noise may in fact lead them to become better informed, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475160

Determinants of Long-Term Growth : A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach

Doppelhofer, Gernot - 2000

This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471000

Bayesian Performance Evaluation

Baks, Klaas - 1999

This paper proposes a Bayesian method of performance evaluation for investment managers. We begin with a flexible set of prior beliefs that can be elicited without any reference to probability distributions or their parameters. We then combine these prior beliefs with a general multi-factor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471727

Incorporating Search and Sales Information in Demand Estimation

Hortaçsu, Ali; Natan, Olivia R.; Parsley, Hayden; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

We propose an approach to modeling and estimating discrete choice demand that allows for a large number of zero sale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving consumers then solves...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794558

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