geographic location for inter-State conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict tends to be more likely when …

We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

inflation to monetary policy …

the Tornqvist index for food product groups: Cumulative food inflation over the period from 2007 through 2015 is reduced …

inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …

constructed by only controlling for the staff forecasts imply responses of macro variables at odds with theory. We directly link …

We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of … historically high inflation. Investors' beliefs about the stock return-inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross … section and on average too optimistic. Moreover, many investors appear unaware of inflation-hedging strategies despite being …