We propose a simple and flexible reduced-form econometric approach to estimate gravity models in the short and the long run. The theoretical lens for interpreting our methods amends the canonical Lucas-Prescott adjustment formulation to allow for time-interval-varying...

This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyze the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than...

We propose a short-run model of the extensive margin of trade and deploy it to distinguish and quantify domestic and cross-border margins. Our empirical focus is on the domestic extensive margin of trade (domestic distribution of a product) and its importance for quantifying policy and...

Specialization alters the incidence of manufacturing trade costs to buyers and sellers, with pro-and anti-globalizing effects on 76 countries from 1990-2002. The structural gravity model yields measures of Constructed Home Bias (the ratio of predicted local trade to predicted frictionless local...

The incidence of bilateral trade costs is calculated here using neglected properties of the structural gravity model, disaggregated by commodity and region, and re-aggregated into forms useful for economic geography. For Canada's provinces, 1992- 2003, incidence is on average some five times...

We develop a dynamic multi-country trade model with foreign direct investment (FDI) in the form of non-rival technology capital. The model nests structural gravity sub-systems for FDI and trade, with accumulation/decumulation of phyisical and technology capital in transition to the steady state....

Short run gravity is a geometric weighted average of long run gravity and bilateral capacity. The model features (i) joint trade costs endogenous to bilateral volumes, (ii) long run gravity as a limiting case of efficient investment in bilateral capacities, (iii) a structural ratio of short run...

A structural gravity model is used to estimate barriers to services trade across many sectors, countries and time. Since the disaggregated output data needed to flexibly infer border barriers are often missing for services, we derive a novel methodology for projecting output data. The empirical...

We build and estimate a structural dynamic general equilibrium model of growth and trade. Trade affects growth through changes in consumer and producer prices that in turn stimulate or impede physical capital accumulation. At the same time, growth affects trade, directly through changes in...

We develop and apply a procedure to flexibly estimate intra-national border barriers and intra-regional trade costs. Bilateral border barriers very significantly depress Canadian inter-provincial trade for some pairs, though the overall effect is rather small. Bilateral distance imposes much...