structure to commodity futures prices, and develop new algorithms for estimation of such models using unbalanced data sets in …

growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence because in the 2000s trading volume increased …

evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically …, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world … account for the increased volatility of oil price we observe in these periods …

the world economy. We analyze the impact of the advent of fracking on the volatility of oil prices. Our model predicts a … large decline in this volatility …

world, using recently developed instruments for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of …

A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international … exchange rate volatility, even after controlling for a host of features, including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate …

suffered most increases in output volatility as a result …

volatility and growth. We first develop a simple growth model where firms engage in two types of investment: a short-term one and …, thus mitigating volatility. But when firms face tight credit constraints, long-term investment turns procyclical, thus … amplifying volatility. Tighter credit therefore leads to both higher aggregate volatility and lower mean growth for a given total …

variability. We show that financial liberalization is mostly associated with lower consumption growth volatility. Our results are … volatility after equity market openings. The results hold for both total and idiosyncratic consumption growth volatility. We also … find that financial liberalizations are associated with declines in the ratio of consumption growth volatility to GDP …