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Chen, Xilu; Pei, Guangyu; Song, Zheng Michael; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We document a process of rapid tertiarization of the Chinese economy since 2005. The employment and value-added shares of the service sector have increased significantly. Moreover, total factor productivity growth has increased faster in the service sector than in the manufacturing sector....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334489

Measuring Economic Growth with a Fully Identified Three-Signal Model

Civelli, Andrea; Gaduh, Arya; Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We augment Henderson, Storeygard, and Weil (2012)'s two-signal model of true income growth with a third signal to overcome its underidentification problem. The additional moment conditions from the third signal help fully identify all model parameters without ad-hoc calibrations of the GDP's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322903

Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run

Jones, Charles I. - 1999

This paper studies a growth model that is able to match several key facts of economic history. For thousands of years, the average standard of living seems to have risen very little, despite increases in the level of technology and large increases in the level of the population. Then, after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471409

Empirical Tests of Alternative Models of International Growth

Kotlikoff, Laurence J. - 1984

Recent changes in patterns of international trade and growth have rekindled interest in the relationships among trade, growth, and the international distribution of income. Three alternative models can serve as a theoretical foundation for an empirical analysis of these relationships. The first...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477675

Notes on Growth Accounting

Barro, Robert J. - 1998

Growth accounting breaks down economic growth into components associated with changes in factor inputs and the Solow residual, which reflects technological progress and other elements. This exercise is generally viewed as a preliminary step for the analysis of fundamental determinants of growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472156

Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth

Ramey, Garey - 1994

This paper presents empirical evidence against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the volatility of economic fluctuations. In a sample of 92 countries as well as a sample of OECD countries, we find that countries with higher volatility have lower growth. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473940

Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth

Nordhaus, William D. - 2015

What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? The present study looks at a recently launched hypothesis, which I label Singularity. The idea here is that rapid growth in computation and artificial intelligence will cross some boundary or Singularity after which economic growth will...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457122

Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations

Chang, Minsu; Chen, Xiaohong; Schorfheide, Frank - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

We develop a state-space model with a state-transition equation that takes the form of a functional vector autoregression and stacks macroeconomic aggregates and a cross-sectional density. The measurement equation captures the error in estimating log densities from repeated cross-sectional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533402

Missing Events in Event Studies : Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises

Gürkaynak, Refet S. - 2018

Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around macroeconomic news and monetary policy announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and latent factors, reflecting other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480669

Identifying Long-Run Risks : A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach

Schorfheide, Frank - 2014

multiple stochastic volatility processes. The estimation is based on annual consumption data from 1929 to 1959, monthly … Bayesian estimation provides strong evidence for a small predictable component in consumption growth (even if asset return data … are omitted from the estimation). Three independent volatility processes capture different frequency dynamics; our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458363

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