apply this framework to understanding the implications of the U.S.-China trade war. Our results show that the trade …-war announcements caused large declines in U.S. stock prices, expected TFP, and expected inflation largely by moving macro variables …, but also by causing declines in the returns of firms trading with China. We find that markets expect the trade war to …

activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression … institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve requirements reduce economic … activity and inflation, consistent with previous studies. In contrast to much of the literature, however, we find that central …

China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We … alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version … of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000's, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and …

rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI … inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing … of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China …

A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …

This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time …

economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …

Amidst the recent resurgence of inflation, this paper investigates the interplay of corporate profits and income … distribution in shaping inflation and aggregate demand within the New Keynesian framework. We derive a novel analytical condition …-demand fluctuations and inflation to be amplified by heterogeneity, profits have to be countercyclical--an implication that is at odds …

recent global surges in inflation and government spending. This study applies the FTPL to 37 OECD countries for 2020 …-2022. The theory's centerpiece is the government's intertemporal budget constraint, which relates a country's inflation rate in … and the duration of the debt in 2019. This specification has substantial explanatory power for recent inflation rates …