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providing a particular set of tasks - prediction tasks. Prediction about uncertain states of the world is an input into decision … could also increase the variance of outcomes as well. We consider the role of human judgment in decision-making as … decisions to machines even when the decision would be superior with human input …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453093
. In this paper, we explore the consequences of improved prediction in decision-making. To do so, we adapt existing models … of decision-making under uncertainty to account for the process of determining payoffs. We label this process of … on whether the improvements in prediction enable automated decision-making. We discuss the implications of improved …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453471
The allocation of decision authority by a principal to either a human agent or an artificial intelligence (AI) is … decision authority, reduce investment in AI reliability and adopt an AI that may be biased. Organizational design …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479197
Machine learning (ML) is mostly a predictive enterprise, while the questions of interest to labor economists are mostly causal. In pursuit of causal effects, however, ML may be useful for automated selection of ordinary least squares (OLS) control variables. We illustrate the utility of ML for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480528
Characterizing the work that people do on their jobs is a longstanding and core issue in labor economics. Traditionally, classification has been done manually. If it were possible to combine new computational tools and administrative wage records to generate an automated crosswalk between job...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480604
Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480620
Artificial states are those in which political borders do not coincide with a division of nationalities desired by the people on the ground. We propose and compute for all countries in the world two new measures how artificial states are. One is based on measuring how borders split ethnic groups...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466337
We have seen in the past decade a sharp increase in the extent that companies use data to optimize their businesses. Variously called the `Big Data' or `Data Science' revolution, this has been characterized by massive amounts of data, including unstructured and nontraditional data like text and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453413
Will smart machines replace humans like the internal combustion engine replaced horses? If so, can putting people out of work, or at least out of good work, also put the economy out of business? Our model says yes. Under the right conditions, more supply produces, over time, less demand as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457725
Economic models provide little insight into when the next big idea and its associated productivity dividend will come along. Once a general purpose technology (GPT) is identified, the economist's toolkit does provide an understanding when firms will adopt a new technology and for what purpose....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226173