In the two decades straddling China's WTO accession, the China Shock, i.e. the rapid trade integration of China in the … about the extent of China Shock's repercussions in their district at the time when they voted on China's Normal Trade … up being adversely affected? Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but …

-assess macro risk, in particular, the probability of tail events. Since changes in beliefs endure long after the event itself has …, along with standard econometric tools, to discipline beliefs about the distribution of aggregate shocks. When agents observe … recurring. As a result, even transitory shocks have persistent effects because, once observed, the shock stays forever in the …

regarding aggregate productivity. The shock to this public signal, or "news shock," has the features of an aggregate demand … shock: it increases output, employment and inflation in the short run and has no effects in the long run. The dynamics of … the economy following an aggregate productivity shock are also affected by the presence of imperfect information: after a …