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Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic : Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections
Diebold, Francis X. - 2020
The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences … provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model … global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482447
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When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume
Diebold, Francis X.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Göbel, Maximilian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point …, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we … enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477224
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Climate Econometrics
Hsiang, Solomon M. - 2016
Identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. Here, I review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456494
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Climate Change through the Lens of Macroeconomic Modeling
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Gillingham, Kenneth; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
There is a rapidly advancing literature on the macroeconomics of climate change. This review focuses on developments in the construction and solution of structural integrated assessment models (IAMs), highlighting the marriage of state-of-the-art natural science with general equilibrium theory....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072904
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Fatal Errors : The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts
Shrader, Jeffrey; Bakkensen, Laura; Lemoine, Derek - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322749
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Hedging Climate Change News
Engle, Robert F, III. - 2019
We propose and implement a procedure to dynamically hedge climate change risk. To create our hedge target, we extract innovations from climate news series that we construct through textual analysis of high-dimensional data on newspaper coverage of climate change. We then use a mimicking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479685
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Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change : A Cross-Country Analysis
Kahn, Matthew E. - 2019
world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480113
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Estimating the Consequences of Climate Change from Variation in Weather
Lemoine, Derek - 2018
I formally relate the consequences of climate change to the time series variation in weather extensively explored by recent empirical literature. I show that reduced-form fixed effects estimators can recover the effects of climate if agents are myopic, if agents' payoff functions belong to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480661
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Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits
Carleton, Tamma A. - 2020
This paper develops the first globally comprehensive and empirically grounded estimates of mortality risk due to future temperature increases caused by climate change. Using 40 countries' subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships that enable both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481452
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The Food Problem and the Aggregate Productivity Consequences of Climate Change
Nath, Ishan B. - 2020
This paper integrates local temperature treatment effects and a quantitative macroeconomic model to evaluate the impact of climate change on sectoral reallocation and aggregate productivity. First, I use firm-level data from a wide range of countries to estimate the effect of temperature on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481491