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Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic : Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

Diebold, Francis X. - 2020

The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences … provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model … global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482447

When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume

Diebold, Francis X.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Göbel, Maximilian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point …, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we … enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477224

Why Did Air Conditioning Adoption Accelerate Faster Than Predicted? Evidence from Mexico

Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

A common theme in the vast literature on climate change is the estimation of models using historical data to make predictions many decades into the future. Although there is a large and growing number of these types of studies, researchers rarely return later to check the accuracy of their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015450856

Climate Econometrics

Hsiang, Solomon - 2016

Identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. Here, I review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456494

Fatal Errors : The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts

Shrader, Jeffrey; Bakkensen, Laura; Lemoine, Derek - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322749

Climate Change through the Lens of Macroeconomic Modeling

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Gillingham, Kenneth; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

There is a rapidly advancing literature on the macroeconomics of climate change. This review focuses on developments in the construction and solution of structural integrated assessment models (IAMs), highlighting the marriage of state-of-the-art natural science with general equilibrium theory....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072904

Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking Population

Budolfson, Mark; Geruso, Michael; Kuruc, Kevin J.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

-run temperatures. We contrast a baseline of global depopulation (the most likely future) with a counterfactual in which the world …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015421883

How a Minimum Carbon Price Commitment Might Help to Internalize the Global Warming Externality

Weitzman, Martin L. - 2016

It is difficult to resolve the global warming free-rider externality problem by negotiating many different quantity targets. By contrast, negotiating a single internationally-binding minimum carbon price (the proceeds from which are domestically retained) counters self-interest by incentivizing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456478

Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change : A Multi-Model Comparison

Gillingham, Kenneth - 2015

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457032

The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures

Cattaneo, Cristina - 2015

Climate change, especially the warming trend experienced by several countries, could affect agricultural productivity. As a consequence the income of rural populations will change, and with them the incentives for people to remain in rural areas. Using data from 116 countries between 1960 and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457047