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Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic : Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

Diebold, Francis X. - 2020

The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences … provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model … global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482447

When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume

Diebold, Francis X.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Göbel, Maximilian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point …, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we … enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477224

Climate Econometrics

Hsiang, Solomon - 2016

Identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. Here, I review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456494

Fatal Errors : The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts

Shrader, Jeffrey; Bakkensen, Laura; Lemoine, Derek - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322749

Climate Change through the Lens of Macroeconomic Modeling

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Gillingham, Kenneth; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

There is a rapidly advancing literature on the macroeconomics of climate change. This review focuses on developments in the construction and solution of structural integrated assessment models (IAMs), highlighting the marriage of state-of-the-art natural science with general equilibrium theory....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072904

Quantifying Climate Change Loss and Damage Consistent with a Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases

Burke, Marshall; Zahid, Mustafa; Diffenbaugh, Noah; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Climate change is generating demonstrable harm around the world. Political and legal efforts have sought to associate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372415

Greens are Right to be Suspicious of Carbon Offsets

Heal, Geoffrey - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

I distinguish between reduction offsets and removal offsets, the former generated by a reduction in the rate of greenhouse gas emissions and the latter generated by the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. I show that only removal offsets make any contribution to mitigating climate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145121

The Environment and Globalization

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2003

Fears that globalization necessarily hurts the environment are not well-founded. A survey reveals little statistical evidence, on average across countries, that openness to international trade undermines national attempts at environmental regulation through a race to the bottom' effect. If...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468604

ENTICE : Endogenous Technological Change in the DICE Model of Global Warming

Popp, David - 2003

Despite growing empirical evidence of the link between environmental policy and innovation, most economic models of environmental policy treat technology as exogenous. For long-term problems such as climate change, this omission can be significant. In this paper, I modify the DICE model of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468936

Estimating the Consequences of Climate Change from Variation in Weather

Lemoine, Derek - 2018

I formally relate the consequences of climate change to the time series variation in weather extensively explored by recent empirical literature. I show that reduced-form fixed effects estimators can recover the effects of climate if agents are myopic, if agents' payoff functions belong to a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480661