Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performance of econometric models based on time-series data and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the preferred approach, a...

Much research has addressed the relative performance of option implied volatilities and econometric model based forecasts in terms of forecasting asset return volatility. The general theme to come from this body of work is that implied volatility is a superior forecast. Some authors attribute...

This paper presents a GARCH type volatility model with a time-varying unconditional volatility which is a function of macroeconomic information. It is an extension of the SPLINE GARCH model proposed by Engle and Rangel (2005). The advantage of the model proposed in this paper is that the...

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy and relative informational content. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some...

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention. Many articles have considered the relative performance of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts. While many studies have found that implied volatility is the preferred approach, a number of issues...

This paper is concerned with evaluating Value-at-Risk estimates. It is well known that using only binary variables, such as whether or not there was an exception, sacrifices too much information. However, most of the specification tests (also called backtests) available in the literature, such...

The unemployment rate in Australia is modelled as an asymmetric and nonlinear function of aggregate demand, productivity, real interest rates, the replacement ratio and the real exchange rate. If changes in unemployment are big, the management of of demand, real interest rates and the...

Modeling and forecasting realized volatility is of paramount importance. Previous studies have examined the role of both the continuous and jump components of volatility in forecasting. This paper considers how to use index level jumps and cojumps across index constituents for forecasting index...

The importance of modelling correlation has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management with large dimensional multivariate problems are increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating a number of...

Understanding the dynamics of volatility and correlation is a crucially important issue. The literature has developed rapidly in recent years with more sophisticated estimates of volatility, and its associated jump and diffusion components. Previous work has found that jumps at an index level...