We assess the implications of demographic uncertainty for the United Kingdom’s fiscal position. We construct stochastic population projections and then use the framework provided by generational accounts to project government revenues and expenditures. We present stochastic paths for the...

Means testing plays an important role in the UK state pension system. We use a dynamic programming model to consider the long-term behavioural effects of a recent policy reform that reduced the marginal tax rates on private income of means tested retirement benefits from 100% to 40%. Our...

This study uses a stylised simulation model to consider potential behavioural responses to the reduction in pension taper rates associated with replacing the Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) with the Pension Credit (PC). A range of long-run responses to the policy change are identified, summarised...

We develop the approach of Gokhale, Kotlikoff & Sabelhaus (1996), based on the lifecycle model of savings, to decompose the differences in the national saving rates between the UK, US and Italy. Our work suggests that the US saving rate is lower principally because Americans on average retire...

The design of welfare benefits is a tricky business. In this respect, James Meade placed particular emphasis on the importance of avoiding excessive distortions to the price of labour. Nevertheless, Meade noted that means testing in the delivery of welfare benefits is likely to be desirable in...

The design of welfare benefits is a tricky business. In this respect, James Meade placed particular emphasis on the importance of avoiding excessive distortions to the price of labour. Nevertheless, Meade noted that means testing is likely to be desirable in view of the “hideously expensive”...

We develop a simulation model of household behaviour in which both the consumption/saving and labour/leisure choices are endogenous. This model is used to explore the effects of the UK and Danish state tax and benefit systems on the labour supply of old and older workers.We find that, in broad...

This paper addresses the issues of the sustainability of government debt stocks, and analyses how this important topic has been handled in the construction and use of large, empirically based, macromodels. It argues that governments must be solvent in a forward looking model, for a theoretically...