We project that the output of the economy in the three months ending in January was 0.8% higher than in the previous three months. Growth in the three months ending in January was rapid, although some evidence suggests that January was weak after faster growth. Looking at the period as a whole...

We project that the output of the economy in the three months ending in February was 0.7% higher than in the previous three months. These estimates suggest that the economy is growing at around its trend rate, and reinforce our view that there is no need for a cut in interest rates. Our track...

Paper presented to Conference on Modelling Risks in Financial Markets. CRASSH. Cambridge

Our latest estimate suggests that the growth rate in the three months ending in December is 0.5% after 0.7% in the three months to September. This is a welcome moderation from a growth rate that has been persistently above trend for the past two years. As in our October forecast, we expect GDP...

* This is a summary of the full article: "The Labour Government's economic record and economic prospects", taken from the National Institute Economic Review, no. 192, April 2005. The National Institute Economic Review is published quarterly by Sage Publications. Please visit the Sage...

The national debt stock of the UK is rising sharply as a result of the economic crisis, and equilibrium output is falling, with the capital stock contracting. Both problems could be alleviated by the rapid introduction (but slow implementation) of a policy to extend working lives. The paper...