Showing 1 - 7 of 7
This paper investigates the link between fiscal policy shocks and movements in asset markets using a Fully Simultaneous System approach in a Bayesian framework. Building on the works of Blanchard and Perotti (2002), Leeper and Zha (2003), and Sims and Zha (1999, 2006), the empirical evidence for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005704669
In the last twenty years Portugal struggled to keep public finances under control, notably in containing primary spending. We use a new quarterly dataset covering 1979:1-2007:4, and estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827122
We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression approach. We build on a recursive identification scheme, but we: (i) include the feedback from government debt (ii); look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005771640
We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue – responsiveness and persistence – we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal behaviour. Drawing on quarterly data we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005771641
We estimate changes in fiscal policy regimes in Portugal with a Markov Switching regression of fiscal policy rules for the period 1978-2007, using a new dataset of fiscal quarterly series. We find evidence of a deficit bias, while repeated reversals of taxes making the budget procyclical....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008583524
In this paper, we show, from the consumer’s budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income should predict both stock returns and government bond yields. We use data for several OECD countries and find that when agents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008873493
Drawing on quarterly data for Portugal, we use a Three-Stage Least Square method and a system of equations to recursively estimate two components of fiscal policy - responsiveness and persistence - and to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). The results suggest that:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005572441