The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, HM Treasury, the Office for National Statistics, Santander (UK) plc and by the members of the NiGEM users group.

We construct a framework for evaluating the macroeconomic impact on the UK economy of policies that are aimed at reducing the number of people receiving social security benefits by helping them into employment. By means of model simulation we evaluate the gains to the economy in terms of output,...

The paper discusses the effects on growth of a systemic banking crisis as a result of debt defaults. These effects will come from the impact of credit rationing on consumption and credit and from the impacts of a significant rise in the spread between lending and borrowing rates for both...