Inferences about earnings volatility across groups and time depend on the underlying models of earnings dynamics, data sources, earnings concepts, and sampling strategies. In this paper we evaluate a model of earnings dynamics in which the permanence of shocks varies by age and education. This...

Empirical analysis of IRA accumulation and withdrawal patterns is limited because information about IRA balances and flows is not available for a sample of taxpayers. This paper combines survey data on IRA balances with individual tax return data on IRA flows to study IRA accumulation and...

This paper presents measures of uncertainty about Social Security Trust Fund projections based on the new Long-Term Actuarial Model (LTAM) being developed at the Congressional Budget Office. Measuring the variance in Social Security outcomes involves three steps: specifying a model,...

The U.S. Social Security retired worker benefit calculation is based on the average of the highest 35 years of each individual's earnings; thus, payroll taxes for people with flat or declining earnings can effectively become a pure tax near the end of their working careers. Individuals who still...

Focuses on the statistical basis for estimating tax burdens, and hence, conceptual issues about how to measure the burden of consumption tax. Discusses a proposal to allow the deduction of new net saving from gross income to arrive at taxable income.

For the past three decades, there has been a significant movement away from defined benefit pension plans in the private sector toward greater use of defined contribution plans, especially 401(k) plans. In contrast, retirement plans in the public sector remain primarily defined benefit plans....

About one-third of the disbursements from pension plans are in the form of lump-sum distributions. In this paper, we use tax-return data to study the incidence and disposition of lump-sum distributions. We find that most lump-sum distributions are small, and the probability of rolling a lump sum...