A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North...

We consider a spatial stochastic model for the simulation of tropical cyclone tracks, which has recently been introduced. Cyclone tracks are represented as labeled polygonal lines, which are described by the movement directions, translational speeds, and wind speeds of the cyclones in regular...