We develop a model that can match two stylized facts of the term-structure. The first stylized fact is the predictability of excess returns on long-term bonds. Modeling this requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the price of risk. The second stylized fact is that long-term yields are...

We extrapolate interest rate yield curves for the purpose of discounting very long-dated pension liabilities and insurance contracts. The extrapolation uses a no-arbitrage term structure model estimated on liquid euro swap instruments with maturities between 5 and 20 years. The extrapolation...

We analyze a collective defined contribution pension fund which aims at intergenerational risk sharing among different age cohorts using a return smoothing mechanism. Using a utility based framework, we find that approximately one third of unexpected return shocks should be directly passed on to...

How does portfolio of long-term investors like pension funds change relative to the stated strategic portfolio? We investigate their portfolio dynamics using an international database that spans over 20 years and focus on portfolio rebalancing. We find that a significant proportion of the change...

We analyze changes in portfolios of pension funds since the start of current low interest rate environment. We find that they have on average decreased the allocation to equity and increased the allocation to fixed income, which is inconsistent with the literature on strategic asset allocation....

We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the long-run risk of three alternative asset classes: equity, nominal bonds and short-term T-Bills. We estimate the long-run risk as the annualized predictive variance of returns at different horizons implied by a vector autoregression using...

We introduce a robust investment strategy to hedge long dated liabilities under model misspecification and incomplete bond markets. A robust agent who worries about misspecified bond premia follows a min-max expected shortfall criterion to protect against model uncertainty. We employ a backward...