Trade in goods that are not perfect substitutes can considerably change the predictions of standard neoclassical models about the effects of asymmetric demographic developments. This paper considers a relative decrease in the population size of one country, when countries specialize in the...

In this study, we analyse the actuarial features of the Italian pension system after the 1995 reform. We consider both the old defined benefit, the pro-rata and the new notional defined contribution pension rules applied to private sector employees born between 1945 and 2000. In the...

In this paper we analyze the trends in labor force participation and transitions to benefit programs of older workers in relation to health trends as well as recent Social Security reforms. Our preliminary conclusions are pessimistic regarding the effect of health improvements on the labor...

Recent reforms that aim at reducing the upcoming burdens of population ageing might seriously harm low income individuals. An increase in old-age poverty and disability will be the result. Under this prospect, the present paper quantitatively characterizes the optimal progressivity of unfunded...

We analyze the outcome of voting over the contribution to a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system in the presence of financial and demographic shocks. The impact of shocks on pension contributions and benefits replicates major developments of pension systems around the world. A decrease in the...

Theoretical studies suggest that unexpected changes in future survival probabilities (longevity risk) are important determinants of individuals' decisions about consumption, saving, asset allocation, and retirement timing. This study provides empirical evidence that individuals are indeed aware...

How can public pension systems be reformed to ensure fiscal stability in the face of increasing life expectancy? To address this question, we use micro data to estimate a structural life-cycle model of individuals' employment, retirement and consumption decisions. We calculate that, in the case...

Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index kt in the Lee-Carter model, we develop a dynamic asset-liability model to assess the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the solvency of a life insurance company....

Demographic change raises demand for non-tradable old-age related services relative to tradable commodities. This demand shift increases the relative price of non-tradables and thereby causes real exchange rates to appreciate. We claim that the change in demand a¤ects prices via imperfect...

This paper analyses the impact of health, pension systems and longevity on savings. It uses a simple life-cycle model embodying social transfers (health care and pension expenditures) and changes in longevity to determine the level of household savings. From this model, we derived an econometric...