We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with 'fragile beliefs' are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European CDS data shows that agents require a...

Many leading asset pricing models predict that the term structure of expected returns and volatilities on dividend strips are upward sloping. Yet the empirical evidence suggests otherwise. This discrepancy can be reconciled if EBIT dynamics are combined with a dynamic capital structure strategy...

Parameter learning strongly amplifies the impact of macro shocks on marginal utility when the representative agent has a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. This occurs as rational belief updating generates subjective long-run consumption risks. We consider general equilibrium models...

Using a comprehensive sample of trades by Schedule 13D filers, who possess valuable private information when they accumulate stocks of targeted companies, this paper studies whether several liquidity measures reveal the presence of informed trading. The evidence suggests that when Schedule 13D...

We extend Kyle's (1985) model of insider trading to the case where noise trading volatility follows a general stochastic process. In equilibrium, price impact and price volatility are stochastic, even though the fundamental value is constant. `Excess stochastic volatility' may arise because...