Inflation at the time of the 1992 election was at its lowest level in 20 years. This fact might have been expected to give the incumbent Administration a significant advantage, since most previous research regarding voters’ economic preferences has found that American voters have a strong...

Estimates of the Phillips curve suggest that the low level of unemployment over the last few years should have produced a fairly significant increase in the rate of inflation, yet inflation has continued to fall. Some take this occurrence as evidence that the NAIRU has declined. Others argue...

How costly would it be in terms of lost output and jobs to lower the inflation rate to zero? One can answer this counterfactual question only in the context of a model that allows us to estimate the effects of pursuing counterfactual monetary policies. The answer to the question can vary widely...

Uncertainty is a key concept in both economic theory and economic practice. Yet, economic forecasts are usually stated as single numbers, or "point estimates," that convey no information about the full array of possible outcomes. The dispersion of individual forecasters' point estimates is often...

Locating the function of bank supervision in the central bank has been a contentious issue, both domestically and internationally. Most discussions of the role of bank supervision in central banking have focused on crisis management and the responsibilities of the central bank as a lender of...

In 1980's, a new convention emerged in the economics profession - that central banks' primary, even sole, responsibility should be controlling consumer price inflation. By the 1990's, this view was gaining credibility in policy circles, and various countries mandated that their central banks...