Results derived from empirical analyses on the stability of climate coalitions are usually very sensitive to the large uncertainties associated with the benefits and costs of climate policies. This paper provides the methodology of Stability Likelihood that links uncertainty about benefits and...

Within this paper, we analyse the fulfilment of the Kyoto-emissions reduction com-mitment exemplary in Germany and its implication on long-term paths of all macro-variables. Germany, like all other industrial or Annex B coun-tries, has to reduce its emissions by 2010 and after what we call a...