This paper uses the OECD's economic model, INTERLINK, to examine the consequences of eliminating the U.S. federal government deficit. Such action could lead to either lower real interest rates, lower inflation rates or a smaller current account deficit, depending on the stance of monetary...

This paper is one of three in this Working Paper Series, along with those by Chouraqui et al. and Blanchard, in which the assessment of fiscal policy is reconsidered. It reviews the question of what type of budget indicators the OECD should compile. Instead of the cyclically-adjusted budget, it...

There are four sets of questions that fiscal indicators can help answer: (1) Of the changes in the fiscal position, what part is due to changes in the economic environment and what part is due to policy? (2) Can the current course of fiscal policy be sustained, or will the government have to...

This paper reviews the arguments in favor of excluding investment from fiscal policy constraints (the adoption of a “golden rule”). The paper starts by reviewing the goals and motivations of fiscal policy rules. From this analysis, it is clear that answering the question of whether...

This paper analyses two factors which may cause cyclically-adjusted budget balances to give a misleading picture of underlying fiscal trends. It first explores the implications of recent large asset-market related fluctuations in government revenues for the measurement of structural budget...