This paper analyses the determinants of structural unemployment rates in a two-stage approach. First, time-varying NAIRUs are estimated for a panel of OECD economies on the basis of Phillips curve equations using Kalman filter techniques. In a second stage, the estimated NAIRUs are regressed on...

This paper reports estimates of a reduced form relationship explaining inflation in terms of the output gap and import price inflation for most OECD countries. Results are reported both for single equation estimation on a country-by-country basis and using a system estimation technique in order...

This note gives a brief survey of main theoretical and empirical issues with respect to the NAIRU concept. According to modern labour market literature NAIRU is defined as the rate of unemployment at which inflation stabilises in the absence of any wage-price surprises. Conventional thinking...

The use of the NAIRU-concept is not very widespread in Belgium. This may be partly due to an observed unemployment rate that is probably significantly higher than the NAIRU for most of the past two decades. Government policy to halve the administrative notion of unemployment by the beginning of...

This paper examines the relationship between the output gap and inflation in Japan by estimating Phillips curves and testing for changes since the advent of low inflation and/or the stabilisation of the rate of change of inflation. The work provides empirical support for the hypothesis of a...

The NAIRU is estimated by using the Japanese data. There are three major findings. The NAIRU has been increasing modestly since 1970. Unlike the standard specification adopted in many OECD countries it can be estimated more precisely when the unemployment rate with a several-quarter lead is...

This paper lays out a simple open economy macromodel based on the recent literature on imperfect competition and equilibrium unemployment. It is shown that the NAIRU is not a clearcut concept in the open economy framework. Furthermore, it is argued that the self-correcting mechanisms in the...

In recent years, inflation in the euro area has failed to decelerate decisively while cyclical slack built up in the economy. Is this phenomenon more than a peculiarity in recent data? Is it related to structural policy settings? Econometric analysis conducted on two decades of quarterly data...

Italy has been one of the few industrial countries resorting to incomes policy in the current decade. Many Italian observers have attributed to this policy the remarkable slowdown in wage and price inflation. However, no apparent progress has been made concerning labour market unbalances, as the...

This paper uses a variety of empirical methods to examine the apparent differences in monetary policy stances as between the United States and other G7 economies, notably those in the euro area, during the period of sharp increases in oil and other commodity prices in the first half of 2008. In...