Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as … to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is developed, using quantile regressions to construct a … probability distribution of future GDP, as opposed to mean point forecasts. This approach allows uncertainty to be assessed …

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of … the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the … probability distribution of forecasting errors are needed in order to draw confidence bands around point forecasts. This paper …

This paper extends the OECD Economics Department’s suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which … accuracy for the first and second quarter following the most recent GDP release these models outperform simple autoregressive … slowdown during the global crisis of 2008-09 and the subsequent rebound several months ahead of official GDP releases. Overall …

This paper describes the OECD’s new small global forecasting model for the three main OECD economic regions: the United … starting point to help animate the early stages of the OECD’s forecasting round. The model is essentially a demand-side model …

This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of … forecasting models using these indicators. In particular it develops dynamic factor models (DFM) which have the advantage of … and information technology indices. The comparison of the forecasting performance of the DFMs with more traditional bridge …