This paper estimates the elasticities of government revenue and expenditure items with respect to the output gap for European Union (EU) countries. These elasticities are used by the European Commission, as part of the EU fiscal surveillance process, to calculate the semi-elasticity of the...

Measuring cyclically-adjusted budget balances for OECD countries An important tool in the analysis of fiscal policy is the distinction between structural and cyclical components of the budget balance. This paper describes work undertaken to re-estimate and re-specify the elasticities underlying...

The paper examines the effects of demographic changes on government budgets and national savings. Most OECD countries will experience a rapid ageing of the population in the future and this development will put public pensions, health care systems and government budgets in general under...

This paper is one of three in this Working Paper Series, along with those by Chouraqui et al. and Blanchard, in which the assessment of fiscal policy is reconsidered. It reviews the question of what type of budget indicators the OECD should compile. Instead of the cyclically-adjusted budget, it...

This paper provides a synthesis of age-related developments and policies for a range of OECD countries, drawing on recent OECD work. It describes the expected impact of ageing on expenditure and fiscal pressures taking into account the current configuration of age-related policies. Since later...

This paper analyses two factors which may cause cyclically-adjusted budget balances to give a misleading picture of underlying fiscal trends. It first explores the implications of recent large asset-market related fluctuations in government revenues for the measurement of structural budget...

This paper presents simulations of the impact of age-related public expenditures on overall government budget positions and on national savings for 20 countries. Using demographic projections prepared by the World Bank, models have been constructed for the evolution of public pension...

This paper reviews the methods used for estimating potential output in OECD countries and the use of the resulting output gaps for the calculation of structural budget balances. The "split time trend" method for estimating trend output that was previously used for calculating structural budget...

Accounting conventions usually leave some room for judgment, which governments may be tempted to take advantage of, especially when fiscal rules bite or threaten to do so. The European experience over the past decade -- documented here in great detail -- illustrates that fiscal gimmicks come in...

Conventionally, fiscal policy analysis makes a distinction between "discretionary" budget changes and "built-in stability". This distinction is the first step to defining a structural budget balance operationally. Budget deficits vary automatically with the business cycle. Revenues automatically...